A New Forecast Source

UPDATE.........the following post has just been interrupted.......we are getting ready to make snow for the first time and we just experienced a water main break!!!!!!!!!!!! See ya later.........

I have had the pleasure of interacting with a new resource in the weather arena. His name is Gary Lezak from the Kansas City area. Gary noticed back in the 1980s that "storm systems seemed to have similar characteristics unique to that year. Quite simply a storm in February looked very similar to one that had occurred earlier in that season, say in December". As the years went by Gary started paying closer attention to the weather patterns and he came up with the LRC.
The LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) simply stated is as follow:
* A unique weather pattern sets up every autumn between October 1st and November 10th
* "Long term" longwave troughs and ridges become established over the northern hemisphere
* The pattern cycles and repeats over and over again until it slowly weakens and falls apart during the mid summer months

As simple as it sounds, to Gary's credit he has had stunning results in his forecast accuracy.........Given that, what is he saying about this winter..........

First and foremost, our weather pattern this winter will be very different from last year. At this point he feels the cycle length will be about 45 days this season with 3 dominant features that will drive our weather this winter.
The first and likely strongest feature, is a ‘long term’ long-wave trough stretching from Hudson Bay through the Ohio Valley. When this part of the pattern occurs, it will favor fast moving ‘clipper’ systems that will race by bringing us light precipitation and shots of frigid arctic air.
However, at times we will be close to the trough boundary and the pattern will have energy coming into it from the Pacific NW which will flatten out the Jet(a strong Pacific Jet will be another strong influence). When this happens, the trough will be over the west and we will be in the ridge bringing very warm weather to the area. Whether we are north of the flow or underneath of it will dictate winter vs. warmth. Or.........as is always the case when we are near a boundary, ice storms become a distinct possibility.
The last part of the forecast seemed quite complex and difficult for me to understand. Basically, energy will drop into the Southwest. At times it will get cut-off. At other times the energy will get picked up in the flow and move our way. This creates the potential for major snows.
What about La Nina? Gary feels that La Nina will in fact be an influence, but the LRC is a stronger force. La Nina years typically are somewhat drier.
In summary we will probably see normal precip and temps overall, but it will be a mixed bag of precip and temps will probably see some pretty crazy swings. Normal overall, but very little normal about any given day.

And Another Comes Out Forecast

Back in late August, we talked about a forecast coming out from a Midwest Meteorologist(Craig McPeck). Hew threw out phrases that included "a whole new definition of extreme" and "coming changes could be quite bizarre." His final winter forecast is out, so let's see how extreme and bizarre we are really talking about.

Precipitation-bulk of precipitation will set up further north than last winter. Last year a strong sub tropical jet was main component of the Jet Stream. This year the southern influence will be much weaker so precip will be much further north with a very strong Pacific Jet dominating. Not a good sign as a strong Pacific Jet often keeps cold air bottled up and prevents it from coming down our way.

Temps-Expect brutal cold across the extreme northern plains. He calls for us to be in a sandwich. That means we can expect wide swings in temps all of which will be short-lived. This would also be a by-product of the Strong Pacific Jet.

Snowfall-Again expect heavy snows across the northern tier of states. We kinda fall on the southern edge of such activity.

Ice-He has us targeted for significant ice storm threats. Expect shallow air masses of cold and warm air to mix creating the potential for deadly ice storms. His personal advise to me was to buy a generator as it is not a matter of if, but rather a matter of how often. That is definitely not good.

Storm Tracks-Again the focus will be on a strong Pacific Jet that will hammer the Pacific Northwest. Some of these storms will migrate south and east into the Texas Panhandle before tracking northeast through the central plains. That leaves us with 3 scenarios. 1- the storms tracks to our south and we get significant amounts of the good stuff.........SNOW! 2-It tracks near us and we see that ice storm scenario. 3-It tracks to our north and we get the warm rains............We are on the edge and will probably see all of the above at one time or another........A second storm track may be from Alberta Clippers that head our way. They typically are very fast moving, bring cold and dry snows that are not noted for heavy accumulations. But they do bring true powder snows when they come.

Turkey day is on the near horizon. So let's talk some turkey trivia in closing. Did you know...............Because the wild turkey is quick to defend itself and fight against all predators, Ben Franklin wanted it as the symbol of the United States. Comparing it to the eagle, he called the turkey "a more respectable bird, a true original native of America."...................you already knew that didn't you..............
Will get you another forecast from an interesting source tomorrow, I hope..........

One more forecast steps forward......

I promise I will be more diligent on blogging. Right now all of our(or at least my) concerns are focused on what winter weather lies ahead.

Today we are looking at the Old Farmer's Almanac(OFA) forecast. They always make it clear that this forecast is derived form a secret formula developed by Robert Thomas back in 1792. The old boy might have been ahead his time by a couple of centuries as his beliefs were centered on sunspot activity. He must have been a Galileo fan. The OFA does quickly admit that they have refined the Thomas formula with modern technology so that it now includes 3 strands of thought.

The crux still centers around solar activity. However, a second discipline has been included and that is climatology. Climatology being defined as the study of prevailing weather patterns and conditions over time. And finally it encompasses meteorology, which is the study of the atmosphere.

What about weather lore that one often associates with the OFA? They say that they believe in the such things but do not employ them to create their forecast. Let's take a look at one of them......."Wind in the East, good for neither man nor beast"..........In the mid-latitude regions the prevailing wind blows from the west. When the wind is out of the east, a low-pressure system accompanied by some type of storm usually follows. The belief behind the proverb dates back to ancient Rome where they would not conduct official business when the wind blew from the east. Reason???............ leaders felt that it made people too irritable.

I have digressed and need to get back to their forecast. So here ya go.........
Winter will be slightly colder than normal, on average, with below normal precipitation and near-to-below normal snowfall. Coldest periods will be in mid-January and Mid February, with other cold periods in mid-to late December and early February. The snowiest periods will be the last 2 weeks of Jan, and early and late Feb, and mid-March.
December-Warm and rain early, then mild thru the 21st. Right before Christmas some snow and cold, with warm and rain after that with some cold weather to close out the year.
January-mild to start turning to seasonable before some bitter cold moves in for mid to late January.
February-A real roller coaster with a little bit of everything. Expect the month to close out cold and snowy.........
So there ya go. I have 3 more very interesting contacts that are getting me info as i post this. If I can understand them, I will share them with you early next week..........