Snowstar Ski Resort Blog

Monday, December 05, 2011

Cold Air... When?

It is now Dec 5th and the God's of Winter continue to ignore us. Weekend brought heavy rain and 50 degree temps.............
It was foretasted to turn to snow on Sunday and get down to 20 by Monday morning. No snow and the low Monday morning was 29 not 20.........
We need 70 hours of temps in the low 20's or colder to get coverage. Looking at the forecasts, it is not going to happen this week and we are going to have to push back our opening date from Dec 10th to a later date.
Why have all those snowy cold forecasts disappeared? Mainly, the reason a lot of meteorologists have turned sour on winter is because of their trust in the European Weekly Models. The last 2 winters, the European models have been very good in latching onto patterns.
These Weekly forecasts show no cold air of any kind coming our way. Do we have any hope of getting some snow made soon?????????
There is a one out there that we desperately need to materialize. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory(ESRL) and what they call the "reforecast" model. This model shows cold air coming, unlike the Euro's. The Euro breaks down the ridge over the west by Dec 10th and shuts off the cold air to the central U.S. The ESRL model shows a different and a much preferred solution. It predicts a much stronger ridge along the west coast with a strong flow of cold air flowing our way. Please let it be so!

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