A New Forecast Source

UPDATE.........the following post has just been interrupted.......we are getting ready to make snow for the first time and we just experienced a water main break!!!!!!!!!!!! See ya later.........

I have had the pleasure of interacting with a new resource in the weather arena. His name is Gary Lezak from the Kansas City area. Gary noticed back in the 1980s that "storm systems seemed to have similar characteristics unique to that year. Quite simply a storm in February looked very similar to one that had occurred earlier in that season, say in December". As the years went by Gary started paying closer attention to the weather patterns and he came up with the LRC.
The LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) simply stated is as follow:
* A unique weather pattern sets up every autumn between October 1st and November 10th
* "Long term" longwave troughs and ridges become established over the northern hemisphere
* The pattern cycles and repeats over and over again until it slowly weakens and falls apart during the mid summer months

As simple as it sounds, to Gary's credit he has had stunning results in his forecast accuracy.........Given that, what is he saying about this winter..........

First and foremost, our weather pattern this winter will be very different from last year. At this point he feels the cycle length will be about 45 days this season with 3 dominant features that will drive our weather this winter.
The first and likely strongest feature, is a ‘long term’ long-wave trough stretching from Hudson Bay through the Ohio Valley. When this part of the pattern occurs, it will favor fast moving ‘clipper’ systems that will race by bringing us light precipitation and shots of frigid arctic air.
However, at times we will be close to the trough boundary and the pattern will have energy coming into it from the Pacific NW which will flatten out the Jet(a strong Pacific Jet will be another strong influence). When this happens, the trough will be over the west and we will be in the ridge bringing very warm weather to the area. Whether we are north of the flow or underneath of it will dictate winter vs. warmth. Or.........as is always the case when we are near a boundary, ice storms become a distinct possibility.
The last part of the forecast seemed quite complex and difficult for me to understand. Basically, energy will drop into the Southwest. At times it will get cut-off. At other times the energy will get picked up in the flow and move our way. This creates the potential for major snows.
What about La Nina? Gary feels that La Nina will in fact be an influence, but the LRC is a stronger force. La Nina years typically are somewhat drier.
In summary we will probably see normal precip and temps overall, but it will be a mixed bag of precip and temps will probably see some pretty crazy swings. Normal overall, but very little normal about any given day.