Snowstar Ski Resort Blog

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

And Another Comes Out Forecast

Back in late August, we talked about a forecast coming out from a Midwest Meteorologist(Craig McPeck). Hew threw out phrases that included "a whole new definition of extreme" and "coming changes could be quite bizarre." His final winter forecast is out, so let's see how extreme and bizarre we are really talking about.

Precipitation-bulk of precipitation will set up further north than last winter. Last year a strong sub tropical jet was main component of the Jet Stream. This year the southern influence will be much weaker so precip will be much further north with a very strong Pacific Jet dominating. Not a good sign as a strong Pacific Jet often keeps cold air bottled up and prevents it from coming down our way.

Temps-Expect brutal cold across the extreme northern plains. He calls for us to be in a sandwich. That means we can expect wide swings in temps all of which will be short-lived. This would also be a by-product of the Strong Pacific Jet.

Snowfall-Again expect heavy snows across the northern tier of states. We kinda fall on the southern edge of such activity.

Ice-He has us targeted for significant ice storm threats. Expect shallow air masses of cold and warm air to mix creating the potential for deadly ice storms. His personal advise to me was to buy a generator as it is not a matter of if, but rather a matter of how often. That is definitely not good.

Storm Tracks-Again the focus will be on a strong Pacific Jet that will hammer the Pacific Northwest. Some of these storms will migrate south and east into the Texas Panhandle before tracking northeast through the central plains. That leaves us with 3 scenarios. 1- the storms tracks to our south and we get significant amounts of the good stuff.........SNOW! 2-It tracks near us and we see that ice storm scenario. 3-It tracks to our north and we get the warm rains............We are on the edge and will probably see all of the above at one time or another........A second storm track may be from Alberta Clippers that head our way. They typically are very fast moving, bring cold and dry snows that are not noted for heavy accumulations. But they do bring true powder snows when they come.

Turkey day is on the near horizon. So let's talk some turkey trivia in closing. Did you know...............Because the wild turkey is quick to defend itself and fight against all predators, Ben Franklin wanted it as the symbol of the United States. Comparing it to the eagle, he called the turkey "a more respectable bird, a true original native of America."...................you already knew that didn't you..............
Will get you another forecast from an interesting source tomorrow, I hope..........

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