Snowstar Ski Resort Blog

Friday, November 19, 2010

One more forecast steps forward......

I promise I will be more diligent on blogging. Right now all of our(or at least my) concerns are focused on what winter weather lies ahead.

Today we are looking at the Old Farmer's Almanac(OFA) forecast. They always make it clear that this forecast is derived form a secret formula developed by Robert Thomas back in 1792. The old boy might have been ahead his time by a couple of centuries as his beliefs were centered on sunspot activity. He must have been a Galileo fan. The OFA does quickly admit that they have refined the Thomas formula with modern technology so that it now includes 3 strands of thought.

The crux still centers around solar activity. However, a second discipline has been included and that is climatology. Climatology being defined as the study of prevailing weather patterns and conditions over time. And finally it encompasses meteorology, which is the study of the atmosphere.

What about weather lore that one often associates with the OFA? They say that they believe in the such things but do not employ them to create their forecast. Let's take a look at one of them......."Wind in the East, good for neither man nor beast"..........In the mid-latitude regions the prevailing wind blows from the west. When the wind is out of the east, a low-pressure system accompanied by some type of storm usually follows. The belief behind the proverb dates back to ancient Rome where they would not conduct official business when the wind blew from the east. Reason???............ leaders felt that it made people too irritable.

I have digressed and need to get back to their forecast. So here ya go.........
Winter will be slightly colder than normal, on average, with below normal precipitation and near-to-below normal snowfall. Coldest periods will be in mid-January and Mid February, with other cold periods in mid-to late December and early February. The snowiest periods will be the last 2 weeks of Jan, and early and late Feb, and mid-March.
December-Warm and rain early, then mild thru the 21st. Right before Christmas some snow and cold, with warm and rain after that with some cold weather to close out the year.
January-mild to start turning to seasonable before some bitter cold moves in for mid to late January.
February-A real roller coaster with a little bit of everything. Expect the month to close out cold and snowy.........
So there ya go. I have 3 more very interesting contacts that are getting me info as i post this. If I can understand them, I will share them with you early next week..........

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home