Back at it following a short recess.
Snowmaking is back on the front burner. We will begin making snow later this afternnon(Dec 1) and hope to have everything skiable and/or boardable by Saturday Dec 13th which remains our targeted open day for the season.
I have spent a little more time researching winter forecasts. Obviously, we always boo the bad forecasts and applaud the good ones. Given that, I stand by my request that you ignore the forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. One of the things that I have taken from my reading is this..............All weather forecasting involves a percentage of guessing. A forecast for the next 24-48 hours might be 90% science and 10% guesswork, and by the time you are trying to forecast for days 7, 8, 9 and 10, the percentages might be more like 50% science and 50% guesswork. By the time you get into seasonal forecasting, there is little proven science and methodology behind those forecasts- at least methods that truly work. Most seasonal forecasts are really just creative writing using meteorological terms!
When it comes to this winter's outlook. I have now seen some underlying common opinions that seem to be the basis from those good forecasts for those of us who love winter weather. First and foremost: 1) The absence of an El Nino. Sea Surface Temps in the Equatorial Pacific look to remain in what is called "ENSO Neutral" through the winter months, which means neither an El Nino or La Nina look to occur. This means that other factors are going to be much more in play and have a much bigger impact than what we have seen over the past few winters.
Some of the most often mentioned factor include the following:
1:Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO)-is an oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies. The QBO for most of the Summer and Autumn has been strongly "positive".... or blowing from the West to East but data shows it has started to weaken slowly. Generally a Westerly or Positive QBO will aid the Pacific Jet... which means that the build up of Cold air over Western Canada is constantly under "attack" by milder Pacific air. Research shows that as the QBO begins to weaken and drop in value towards zero... the pattern becomes distinctly more favorable for blocking patterns to develop a colder and more stormy pattern east of the Rockies. This is critical because if the +QBO does not drift toward neutral, then winter truly could be mild east of the Rockies.
2:North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-the large-scale see-saw in atmospheric mass between the sub-tropical high and the polar low in th north Atlantic. It has a huge impact on the Polar jet stream. When the NAO is in the negative phase, the Polar jet is forced south into our region resulting in a colder and stormier pattern. When the NAO is positive, the cold air stays trapped up in Canada. With a neutral ENSO, we should see intervals of that wonderful -NAO!
So what does all this mean------------?
I have spent a little more time researching winter forecasts. Obviously, we always boo the bad forecasts and applaud the good ones. Given that, I stand by my request that you ignore the forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. One of the things that I have taken from my reading is this..............All weather forecasting involves a percentage of guessing. A forecast for the next 24-48 hours might be 90% science and 10% guesswork, and by the time you are trying to forecast for days 7, 8, 9 and 10, the percentages might be more like 50% science and 50% guesswork. By the time you get into seasonal forecasting, there is little proven science and methodology behind those forecasts- at least methods that truly work. Most seasonal forecasts are really just creative writing using meteorological terms!
When it comes to this winter's outlook. I have now seen some underlying common opinions that seem to be the basis from those good forecasts for those of us who love winter weather. First and foremost: 1) The absence of an El Nino. Sea Surface Temps in the Equatorial Pacific look to remain in what is called "ENSO Neutral" through the winter months, which means neither an El Nino or La Nina look to occur. This means that other factors are going to be much more in play and have a much bigger impact than what we have seen over the past few winters.
Some of the most often mentioned factor include the following:
1:Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO)-is an oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies. The QBO for most of the Summer and Autumn has been strongly "positive".... or blowing from the West to East but data shows it has started to weaken slowly. Generally a Westerly or Positive QBO will aid the Pacific Jet... which means that the build up of Cold air over Western Canada is constantly under "attack" by milder Pacific air. Research shows that as the QBO begins to weaken and drop in value towards zero... the pattern becomes distinctly more favorable for blocking patterns to develop a colder and more stormy pattern east of the Rockies. This is critical because if the +QBO does not drift toward neutral, then winter truly could be mild east of the Rockies.
2:North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-the large-scale see-saw in atmospheric mass between the sub-tropical high and the polar low in th north Atlantic. It has a huge impact on the Polar jet stream. When the NAO is in the negative phase, the Polar jet is forced south into our region resulting in a colder and stormier pattern. When the NAO is positive, the cold air stays trapped up in Canada. With a neutral ENSO, we should see intervals of that wonderful -NAO!
So what does all this mean------------?
- a neutral ENSO...........good news!
- Pacific Jet which has been very strong this fall should weaken steadily.......good news!
- there should be several major if not severe Arctic Outbreaks. Something we have not seen for several years..............good news for snowmaking, not so good for the less-than-hearty if it is brutally cold
- Winter snows may be below the norm.............ok news if ya keep the rain away
- Winter 08-09 as a whole will average out to be very close to normal. Expect intervals of intense cold.........prolonged intervals of below normal temps...as well as intervals of above normal temps and a couple weeks of serious warmth..............not the best news!
- December should be the coldest of the 3 months.........the cold pattern breaks down in January and the potential exists for a least a couple weeks of warm weather........should allow us a great start..........lets hang on and enjoy that January thaw............please keep the rain away
- February seems to be the month of huge variances in forecasts.....lets run with those that look for a cold and Snowy February................if we run with the winner it will be awesome!
posted by Snowstar Ski Resort at
3:25 PM
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