It Has Begun
At 2:15 am on the morning of Nov 18th, we officially started making snow for the season. Seems like an early start? Not really, but not a bad time to get started. Historically, we average about 26 hours of snowmaking in November. Nov of 2000 started on Nov 14th and we logged 114 hours of snomaking. Nov of '01 and '06 marked the only Novembers that we saw no snomaking opportunities. So for the first night of this season we will have about 6 hours under our belt.
What will the rest of winter bring?............nobody really seems to know. Let's look at some of the forecasts that are out there. Let's start with the National Weather Service. In my mind, they never really make much of a forecast. Publishing a forecast in terms of probabilities is not really a forecast. If no set of conditions could make a forecast wrong, then it is not much of a forecast.
Let's look at what they are saying at the moment. The winter outlook says we have a 40% chance of above normal temps, a 33% chance of normal temps, and a 27% chance of below normal temps. That is how I came to the conclusion that they really do not know what this winter will bring.
Old Farmer's Almanac says we will see a colder and drier winter than is the norm. Specifically they predict a Cold December, a Warm January, and a near normal February in terms of temps. Snowiest periods are to be in early Dec, early Jan, and early February. It is always nice to the source of a forecast's rationale, but you ain't gonna get much from them as they derive their forecast from a secret formula!.............mmmmm......I see!
New Farmer's Almanac calls for a "numbing" winter with below average temps and above average snowfall. We are to expect a frigid, wild, snowy winter. Not sure what they base their prediction on...........perhaps someone out there can enlighten me.
So, there ya go. 3 drastically different takes on what this winter will bring. From what I understand(and that is little).........The current state of ENSO(El Nino/Southern Oscillation) is neutral. This neutral state is know as a "La Nada" as it has been recently named in jest. ENSO neutral years are characterized by much higher uncertainty. A weak signal from the Equatorial Pacific often means that the other signals such as the Pacific-North American Oscillation(PNA), the Arctic Oscillation(AO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) have a greater influence on the weather. Problem is.........these signals are almost impossible to forecast long-range events.
So stay tuned and let's seen who knows what as this winter unfolds............
What will the rest of winter bring?............nobody really seems to know. Let's look at some of the forecasts that are out there. Let's start with the National Weather Service. In my mind, they never really make much of a forecast. Publishing a forecast in terms of probabilities is not really a forecast. If no set of conditions could make a forecast wrong, then it is not much of a forecast.
Let's look at what they are saying at the moment. The winter outlook says we have a 40% chance of above normal temps, a 33% chance of normal temps, and a 27% chance of below normal temps. That is how I came to the conclusion that they really do not know what this winter will bring.
Old Farmer's Almanac says we will see a colder and drier winter than is the norm. Specifically they predict a Cold December, a Warm January, and a near normal February in terms of temps. Snowiest periods are to be in early Dec, early Jan, and early February. It is always nice to the source of a forecast's rationale, but you ain't gonna get much from them as they derive their forecast from a secret formula!.............mmmmm......I see!
New Farmer's Almanac calls for a "numbing" winter with below average temps and above average snowfall. We are to expect a frigid, wild, snowy winter. Not sure what they base their prediction on...........perhaps someone out there can enlighten me.
So, there ya go. 3 drastically different takes on what this winter will bring. From what I understand(and that is little).........The current state of ENSO(El Nino/Southern Oscillation) is neutral. This neutral state is know as a "La Nada" as it has been recently named in jest. ENSO neutral years are characterized by much higher uncertainty. A weak signal from the Equatorial Pacific often means that the other signals such as the Pacific-North American Oscillation(PNA), the Arctic Oscillation(AO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) have a greater influence on the weather. Problem is.........these signals are almost impossible to forecast long-range events.
So stay tuned and let's seen who knows what as this winter unfolds............
posted by Snowstar Ski Resort at
5:15 AM
1 Comments:
Ed, I would say your knowledge exceeds the weather man. I vote for you to take over the weather on 4,6 and 8. However we will need to make weather last 15 minutes instead of 4. Hows things in the bar / deli without me?
Randy
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Anonymous, at 30/11/08 8:17 AM
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