Updated Update

Just when they ruin my Thanksgiving with a warm December forecast, they do an about face and tease me with the chance of a slightly different twist on what to expect in the next couple of weeks!

Here is the latest...........

There is still debate on whether it is going to be colder than normal or just seasonally could in December. Either scenario is completely different than the forecasts that came out just three days earlier. This is GREAT NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Several forecasters commented that in Oct they expected the HEART of the cold air would be centered over the Western Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Plains...........that thought has returned. Their explanation for the warm Dec forecast was the surge in intensity of El Nino leads to just that 9 out of 10 times. But, apparently this is going to be that 1 time in 10! Oh yeah!

What changed to make such a stunning turnaround? Seems that we are about to see a jet stream change. The powerful Pacific Jet is about to be replaced by a split jet which will set the stage for the Arctic Jet and the Subtropical Jet to become prominent. This being said, we have a great opportunity to see some cold air early and some snow later as the Arctic Jet provides the cold air and the SubTropic Jet provides the moisture............

LET THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT AND IT WILL BE A GREAT START TO THE SEASON!!!!

Update as Promised

Oh my how things have changed since I last blogged. Those early forecasts of a bitter cold and snowy winter seem to have been based on some faulty assumptions. The key assumption was that El Nino, showing no signs of strengthening all fall would continue in that manner. Unfortunately, in late Oct and Early Nov it literally exploded!

The impact of the rapid rise of the El Nino into the upper fringe of the Moderate Category over the past few weeks clearly affects the winter forecast. Typical of such a transition is the development of a very powerful Pacific Jet Flow. This has been evident over the last 2 weeks. This will particularly impact the 1st half of winter when we are now expected to see a warm and wet pattern well into January. Does anyone remember the winter of 06/07?????? A very similar scenario!

El Nino's huge pool of warm water does appear to be migrating eastward toward the Peru coast. As this massive bubble of warmth propagates eastward, waters should cool off significantly behind it. If this can persist, then El Nino's strength should be short lived.

That being said, the 2nd half of winter could very likely see cold and snow settling in and persisting until early March. Does anyone remember the winter of 06/07?????? A very similar scenario!

If you look at past data, you can find 4 winters where we had El Nino events which rapidly strengthened in late Oct and early Nov only to weaken during late Dec and early Jan. Those winters were 1965-66, 2002-03, 2004-05, and 2006-07. In all four of these events we saw a mild or very mild Dec followed by a significant shift in the overall pattern at some point during the 2nd half of winter. The best known and most recent case was the El Nino Event of 2006-07. This featured a very warm Dec over the entire nation east of the Rockies followed by a rapid breakdown of the El Nino during the holidays.... and then a massive pattern shift to a significant cold and snowy pattern east of the Mississippi....from Jan 15 thru Mar 15. That 60 day period was one of the coldest 60 day periods ever seen in the continental US in the last 100 years.

In the short term, we are hearing a lot of talk about a cold outbreak in the near horizon. But I really do not see it being extreme or long-lived. In order for that to happen you have to have a core of cold air on this side of the world. Right now you see the main Polar Vortex is still situated way over in China and Siberia. There is no hint in any models that the vortex is going to leave and shift over into the Western Hemisphere any time soon. Without the vortex setting up in the Western Hemisphere, there is no way to keep the cold pattern in place. Without having a Polar Vortex in place, there is no resistance when the pattern begins to weaken and the Pacific Jet will once again reassert itself.

Snowmaking capabilities will be relied upon heavily once again!!!!!!!!!

What Will Mom Nature Send Us????

Well it is that time of year to start wondering what winter has in store for us. Once again the forecasts are all over the board. As time has gone on however, they have started to get closer together. In particular, the National Weather Service has backed off somewhat on its initial forecast of a much warmer winter than normal. They are now saying a warmer than normal winter, but we have at least moved closer to the cut-off line between normal and above normal. They have also moved us from the drier than normal range to the normal precipitation range now(as of Oct 15th). So here ya go...............you pick!
1- National Weather Service.....above normal temps and equal chances of near normal precip
2- Farmers' Almanac....Bitterly Cold and Dry
3- Old Farmer's Almanac....Cold and Snowy
4- AccuWeather official forecast(Joe Bastardi)....Not as Cold nor Snowy(similar to NWS)
5- AccuWeather's unofficial(Henry Margusity)....Cold and Snowy
6- Snowday....Brutal Cold and Snowy
Most of the variances center around what El Nino is doing. The cold forecasts believe El Nino will not strengthen and will remain moderately weak. The warmer forecasts hinge upon the belief that El Nino will strengthen.
I personally am not riding the wave of a major El Nino, however I must admit that just recently it has finally strengthened somewhat(well after its strengthening was predicted).

I will update you in a couple of weeks...........
ed

Global Warming at It's Finest

Got to the area about 6am this morning and the temp was sitting at -33 degrees. Yesterday's high here at Snowstar peaked at -12. Today holds far more promise as the forecast is for lower teens. Doesn't sound very warm, but it will be about 25 degrees warmer than yesterday.
Where did this all come from? The most recent entrance can be traced to Alaska where they have even experienced an unusual cold spell. Their(Anchorage) cold invasion really began just before the new year when temps fell well below zero on the 29th of Dec and stayed there non-stop through the 7th of Jan.
Generally speaking, when you see that kind of cold in Alaska, 2 things are usually true. First of all, it is rarely very cold in Alaska AND downstream in the Midwest at the same time. Secondly, when the cold air does move our way, it often means a dramatic flip in Alaska. Flip, it did. Eislson Airforce Base near Fairbanks went from -55 to the mid 50's a couple days later. A temp swing of 110 degrees in a matter of 72 hours.
If you think about that, it currently is much warmer in Alaska than it is in northern Florida. That does happen from time to time with a high amplitude pattern like this. But that is just crazy!
This kind of pattern will not last as a monster storm is coming across the Aleutians which will put Alaska back in the freezer and we see easing of the brutal cold this weekend.
Bundle up and when the temps approach 30 on Saturday, we ourselves will witness a 60 degree temps swing............
eed

Back at it following a short recess.

Snowmaking is back on the front burner. We will begin making snow later this afternnon(Dec 1) and hope to have everything skiable and/or boardable by Saturday Dec 13th which remains our targeted open day for the season.
I have spent a little more time researching winter forecasts. Obviously, we always boo the bad forecasts and applaud the good ones. Given that, I stand by my request that you ignore the forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. One of the things that I have taken from my reading is this..............All weather forecasting involves a percentage of guessing. A forecast for the next 24-48 hours might be 90% science and 10% guesswork, and by the time you are trying to forecast for days 7, 8, 9 and 10, the percentages might be more like 50% science and 50% guesswork. By the time you get into seasonal forecasting, there is little proven science and methodology behind those forecasts- at least methods that truly work. Most seasonal forecasts are really just creative writing using meteorological terms!
When it comes to this winter's outlook. I have now seen some underlying common opinions that seem to be the basis from those good forecasts for those of us who love winter weather. First and foremost: 1) The absence of an El Nino. Sea Surface Temps in the Equatorial Pacific look to remain in what is called "ENSO Neutral" through the winter months, which means neither an El Nino or La Nina look to occur. This means that other factors are going to be much more in play and have a much bigger impact than what we have seen over the past few winters.
Some of the most often mentioned factor include the following:
1:Quasi-Biennial Oscillation(QBO)-is an oscillation of the equatorial zonal wind between easterlies and westerlies. The QBO for most of the Summer and Autumn has been strongly "positive".... or blowing from the West to East but data shows it has started to weaken slowly. Generally a Westerly or Positive QBO will aid the Pacific Jet... which means that the build up of Cold air over Western Canada is constantly under "attack" by milder Pacific air. Research shows that as the QBO begins to weaken and drop in value towards zero... the pattern becomes distinctly more favorable for blocking patterns to develop a colder and more stormy pattern east of the Rockies. This is critical because if the +QBO does not drift toward neutral, then winter truly could be mild east of the Rockies.
2:North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)-the large-scale see-saw in atmospheric mass between the sub-tropical high and the polar low in th north Atlantic. It has a huge impact on the Polar jet stream. When the NAO is in the negative phase, the Polar jet is forced south into our region resulting in a colder and stormier pattern. When the NAO is positive, the cold air stays trapped up in Canada. With a neutral ENSO, we should see intervals of that wonderful -NAO!
So what does all this mean------------?

• a neutral ENSO...........good news!
• Pacific Jet which has been very strong this fall should weaken steadily.......good news!
• there should be several major if not severe Arctic Outbreaks. Something we have not seen for several years..............good news for snowmaking, not so good for the less-than-hearty if it is brutally cold
• Winter snows may be below the norm.............ok news if ya keep the rain away
• Winter 08-09 as a whole will average out to be very close to normal. Expect intervals of intense cold.........prolonged intervals of below normal temps...as well as intervals of above normal temps and a couple weeks of serious warmth..............not the best news!
• December should be the coldest of the 3 months.........the cold pattern breaks down in January and the potential exists for a least a couple weeks of warm weather........should allow us a great start..........lets hang on and enjoy that January thaw............please keep the rain away
• February seems to be the month of huge variances in forecasts.....lets run with those that look for a cold and Snowy February................if we run with the winner it will be awesome!

It Has Begun

At 2:15 am on the morning of Nov 18th, we officially started making snow for the season. Seems like an early start? Not really, but not a bad time to get started. Historically, we average about 26 hours of snowmaking in November. Nov of 2000 started on Nov 14th and we logged 114 hours of snomaking. Nov of '01 and '06 marked the only Novembers that we saw no snomaking opportunities. So for the first night of this season we will have about 6 hours under our belt.

What will the rest of winter bring?............nobody really seems to know. Let's look at some of the forecasts that are out there. Let's start with the National Weather Service. In my mind, they never really make much of a forecast. Publishing a forecast in terms of probabilities is not really a forecast. If no set of conditions could make a forecast wrong, then it is not much of a forecast.
Let's look at what they are saying at the moment. The winter outlook says we have a 40% chance of above normal temps, a 33% chance of normal temps, and a 27% chance of below normal temps. That is how I came to the conclusion that they really do not know what this winter will bring.

Old Farmer's Almanac says we will see a colder and drier winter than is the norm. Specifically they predict a Cold December, a Warm January, and a near normal February in terms of temps. Snowiest periods are to be in early Dec, early Jan, and early February. It is always nice to the source of a forecast's rationale, but you ain't gonna get much from them as they derive their forecast from a secret formula!.............mmmmm......I see!

New Farmer's Almanac calls for a "numbing" winter with below average temps and above average snowfall. We are to expect a frigid, wild, snowy winter. Not sure what they base their prediction on...........perhaps someone out there can enlighten me.

So, there ya go. 3 drastically different takes on what this winter will bring. From what I understand(and that is little).........The current state of ENSO(El Nino/Southern Oscillation) is neutral. This neutral state is know as a "La Nada" as it has been recently named in jest. ENSO neutral years are characterized by much higher uncertainty. A weak signal from the Equatorial Pacific often means that the other signals such as the Pacific-North American Oscillation(PNA), the Arctic Oscillation(AO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) have a greater influence on the weather. Problem is.........these signals are almost impossible to forecast long-range events.

So stay tuned and let's seen who knows what as this winter unfolds............

Mother Nature Giveth and Taketh

Mother Nature always seems to remind us of who is control ultimately. Generally speaking, in the winter of '07-'08 she allowed all of us that enjoy winter sports to feel pretty darn good.

Perhaps Mom detected us feeling a little cocky about all the fun we had last winter and decided it was time to put us in our place. In early June we were deluged with over 5 inches of rain in a 2 hour period. July brought the entire QC area a hammering from what is termed a "Derecho". A derecho by definition is a long lived straight-line windstorm associated with band of rapidly moving thunderstorms. The word was coined by Dr. Gustavus Hinrichs, a physics professor at the U of Iowa, in a paper published in the American Meteorological Journal back in 1888. By definition winds in a derecho must meet the National Weather Service criterion for severe wind gusts (greater than 57 mph) at most points along the derecho path. I doubt that anyone in the QC would question that criteria as we experienced sustained winds in excess of 95 mph. September had to get in on the act also as we received almost 10 inches of rain over a 3 day period.

Bottom line for us at the ski area was extensive damage to our snowmaking pond, dike, and dam that served as our source of snowmaking water in the winter. Nothing that a $40,000 project couldn't repair. Unfortunately, we were lucky compared to some of the anguish that other residents had to deal with in the aftermath of the derecho.

What does this winter have in store????????? Stay tuned. I have been looking at a bunch of long range forecasts and I will share my thoughts in a few days................