The Lost Winter

Early Prediction...........by almost as sources..........winter to be cold and snowy!
WRONG, on all accounts.!!!!!
Is there hope...........?.............not much.
Source #1:
With regard to this particular winter - or non winter - the problems remain immense and model depictions of how the pattern is going to evolve over the next 10 days has been really bad. The various models keep forecasting a winter pattern to evolve down the road. Yet, when that time arrives and we compare the actual to the forecast we see huge discrepancies.
If you are hoping for a significant pattern change .........it is not going to happen!
There will still be some winter weather off and on. But winter as we know it is not going to happen.
Source #2:
The AO and NAO have been mostly positive all winter long. Thus, we have seen a seemingly unblocked zonal flow. When the AO and NAO go negative, surface pressures rise in the Polar regions and cold air is more likely to shift south. When they are positive, surface pressures are lower at the higher latitudes and the cold arctic air is more likely to stay put, which has been the predominant pattern this winter. The AO and NAO have ventured into the negative but indications are that this is only temporary and will drift back to neutral.
BOTTOM LINE...........We have made snow at every possible opportunity and are in great shape to provide good skiing/boarding/tubing well into early March despite Mother Nature's stubbornness.

Cold Air... When?

It is now Dec 5th and the God's of Winter continue to ignore us. Weekend brought heavy rain and 50 degree temps.............
It was foretasted to turn to snow on Sunday and get down to 20 by Monday morning. No snow and the low Monday morning was 29 not 20.........
We need 70 hours of temps in the low 20's or colder to get coverage. Looking at the forecasts, it is not going to happen this week and we are going to have to push back our opening date from Dec 10th to a later date.
Why have all those snowy cold forecasts disappeared? Mainly, the reason a lot of meteorologists have turned sour on winter is because of their trust in the European Weekly Models. The last 2 winters, the European models have been very good in latching onto patterns.
These Weekly forecasts show no cold air of any kind coming our way. Do we have any hope of getting some snow made soon?????????
There is a one out there that we desperately need to materialize. NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory(ESRL) and what they call the "reforecast" model. This model shows cold air coming, unlike the Euro's. The Euro breaks down the ridge over the west by Dec 10th and shuts off the cold air to the central U.S. The ESRL model shows a different and a much preferred solution. It predicts a much stronger ridge along the west coast with a strong flow of cold air flowing our way. Please let it be so!

Winter Update

WELL!.............the second guessing has begun.
I am hearing numerous reports that some meteorologists(from both the private commercial sector and the energy sector) are beginning to downplay their winter forecasts. Some are even hinting at a collapse of winter as predicted just a couple weeks ago!
Perhaps part of the problem is that we have just come off 2 significant winters in a row and the anticipation, excitement, and build up for a 3rd such winter has led to over-zealous expectations.
It now looks like the best we may see is seasonal conditions and that may not happen until mid December. Nothing like the winter forecasters being wrong before Winter officially begins.

Accuweather just issued a statement that they need to revise their winter forecast!
Let the back-pedaling begin. They originally predicted the Midwest to see lots of cold and lots of snow. La Nina has proven to be weaker than expected. A strong La Nina often overrides other patterns and will provide more definitive results. A weaker La Nina is more likely to be influenced by other factors, yielding a wide variety of potential outcomes.
One of the key players recently has been the lack of a Greenland Block. Without this block, the dip in the storm track is in the Western U.S. Bingo, that is what November has seen. So, will the NAO go negative sometime soon and create a block???? If you visited my previous posting you may recall my comment about Accuweather's initial forecast............."Sounds too good to be true!!!!!!!!!"..........
I am still holding out for a good winter even if it may be a little late in arriving. The last 2 winters really got cranking as soon as Dec hit. There still have been a lot of winters that got off to a slow start but provided lots of winter in late December into January and February.

Upcoming Winter 11/12

Has anyone missed me.....?.......I know, I need to step up and show some diligence and post once in a while..........
So what is coming our way this winter? Always an exciting time of year as we anticipate the first hint of winter weather.
I can never wait to see the various forecasts, but experience has shown me that the early forecasts simply have little substance. But it is still fun to take a look at them, compare them and ultimately grade them out to see how accurate they really were.
Last year's results???????? Somewhat shaky to say the least. Consensus was that February was going to be cold and snowy............not so much in reality! We got that wonderful dump of powder on Feb 1st and 2nd. Little did we know that end of winter was upon us. Guess that groundhog was smarter than we thought.
Here ya go............forecasts as of today November 17th, 2011.
#1-AccuWeather
Says the Midwest will be dealt the worst of winter this year.
In terms both snow and cold.
Bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the Midwest through January, with above normal snowfall. This buildup of snow cover across the Midwest could act as a catalyst to extend winter beyond February.
why?..La Nina
La Nina's often produce a volatile weather pattern for the Midwest due to the influence they have on the jet stream. The way the Jet Stream is expected to be positioned during this Winter's event will tend to drive storms though the Midwest.
Sounds too good to be true!!!!!!!!!

#2 Old Farmer's Almanac
Winter Temps will be above normal with below normal precip. Coldest in Mid-Late Dec, Mid Jan, Mid Feb..........Snowiest periods Mid Dec, Late Feb
Certainly not an acceptable forecast!!!

#3. Farmers' Almanac
Average Temps with above normal Precip.......this is the odd one(could work if that precip is snow and not rain or ice).

#4. NOAA
Near Normal Precip and slightly below normal temps (boring but acceptable)

#5. WXRISK
Dec - Colder than normal temps with above normal precip
Jan….Below normal temps with normal precip
Feb….Colder than normal temps with above normal precip
Outstanding Forecast ....and by the way, he is often right!!!!

#6. Snowday
Winter Temps
I am expecting the northern tier of the United States to experience the harshest cold this winter compared to average. Below average temperatures will exist over a portion of the western United States moving southeast through the eastern U.S.
However, if the AO is not as negative as expected this winter, and I am getting a bit worried about the AO not becoming as negative,temperatures would be overall warmer over the southeastern United States as well as a chunk of the eastern United States.
Winter Snowfall....Average to slightly above average.
Ice Storm Risk...Due to the expected track of the storm systems this year, and the NAO for not being as negative as we head into the winter time as well as the AO being more neutral these storms will have a harder time to go as far south as last winter did, thus warm air will mix with the cold air creating the potential for significant ice storms across much of central and eastern Kansas through all of Missouri, northern Arkansas as well as all of Illinois This winter will be the winter of the Ice Storm over a good deal of the eastern/central United States.
QC Summary....much like last winter, will see lots of variability this winter. I am expecting some harsh winter weather conditions with brutal cold air.Clipper like systems will be most prevalent and will even be more south then last winter landing with some quick hitting snow cold and wind from Nebraska and Iowa on north.
Every so often there will be the potential for some panhandle low pressure systems, these will be the power house storm systems that will deliver with it high impact winter conditions. I am expecting a heightened risk for high ice storms much of Kansas, Missouri and southeastern Nebraska through eastern Iowa, much more
of a ice risk this winter then last winter as the NAO/AO wont be quite as negative this winter allowing these storms to go further north, but only enough to clash the warm air with the cold air to create ice storm conditions. Overall temperatures will seesaw through the winter with extreme bouts of arctic air and warmer air, the entire winter will not be bone chilling nor will the entire winter be warm weather.
Lots of potential, but he throws in a few zingers that mak me uneasy!!!

LRC
Winter Temperature Forecast
A cold winter is most likely from the Mississippi River Valley northeast
Winter Precipitation Forecast. We are forecasting an active weather pattern across North America this winter with strong and wet storm systems, most frequently over the Great Lakes states. Very strong Pacific storm systems will blast into the western states at times deepening into the long-term long wave troughs. We will learn a lot more about how storm systems will track, intensify, weaken, and strengthen in the next few weeks. We are expecting more rain than in recent winters. The past two winters have had mostly dry and fluffy snowstorms with very little of the precipitation coming in other forms.  This year we expect rain, freezing rain, and sleet to cut into what could be higher totals.
Gary throws in some big red flags on all of the winter bliss!!!!!!!! and he has a strong track record!

Stay Tuned For Updates...........
and Happy Thanksgiving

Extreme Super Moon

I started this post yesterday and got interrupted and decided to finish it later. Later caused me to really wonder about what I was looking at.
In the middle of March the moon will make its closest approach to the earth in 18 years. The definition of an extreme Super Moon is when the moon is fill or new as well as at its closest proximity to the earth. Thus we will experience such a phenomenon in the middle of this month.
Some say that such an event will bring strong earthquakes and storms. Such predictions certainly seem debatable. There were super moons in 1955, 1974, 1992 and 2005. All of these years had their share of extreme weather and natural disasters, but were they coincidental or not? I tend to be a non-believer of super moon hype, but in view of the catastrophic event in Japan in the last 24 hours, one tends to wonder. When I was sharing my doubt with my staff, I was reminded of the 9.0 earthquake that hit Indonesia very near the time of the last super moon which ocurred on Jan 10th, 2005.
Does the prediction of the upcoming super moon spell disaster, or is it just another attempt to arouse society's passion for a good doom and gloom story. I have difficult accepting validity of such havoc predictions. I must confess however, that I know so little and I certainly am glad I do not live in Japan. My heart goes out to that part of the world. What a helpless position they have found.

Just as they predicted.........NOT!

Well, my fears have to come to fruition. So many winter forecasts called for the end of February to be cold and snowy. We are now in that time slot and we are looking highs in the mid 60's today(Feb17). We have seen a huge alteration in the jet stream pattern. We still have plenty of snow and winter certainly cannot have left us yet. Perhaps the groundhog knows more than he is given credit for!
The upcoming few weeks are perennially a battle between two seasons. Flips in the jet stream pattern can allow ever-changing cold shots and warm surges. When the two air masses clash, storms can result. If you are on the colder side of those storms, snow can easily pile up.
Keep your fingers crossed for us to be on that cold side!!!!!!! One thing you can always count on is this.............Mother Nature is in Charge!!!!!!!!!!!
Get your snow on!!!

Statism

As each day awakens, we see government exercising its desire to control us just a little bit more......... tugging one more freedom away from us. At this very moment, in committee of the Illinois General Assembly is proposed legislation called "Ski Slope Safety Act". In essence, "The Ski Slope Safety Act provides that every ski area operator shall ensure that all skiers and snowboarders are not permitted to enter the recreation area without protective helmets".
Our industry actively promotes the use of helmets. In 2002, the National Ski Areas Association launched the "Lids on Kids" interactive website (www.lidsonkids.org) in an effort to educate kids and parents about helmet use on the slopes. As a result of this and other education efforts by resorts, ski helmet use is now at 87% for kids age 9 and under; 75% for kids age 10-14; and 61% for kids ages 15-17. These figures are impressive, especially when compared to other mandated helmet sports.
Not only does this bill remove one more of our freedoms of choice, but it places the resorts in charge of enforcement.
You may ask what statism is and what does that have to do with wearing a helmet. One definition of statism is as follows...........
Under statism, government is no longer a policeman, but a gang of thugs with the legal power to initiate force in any manner they please against a legally disarmed citizen. This seems to be a rather harsh stance as I always thought it meant government wanting to make all of our decisions for us and removing freedoms one by one to meet it owns agenda.
Not only does this act require helmets on the slopes, but requires helmets upon entering the area as well as such activities as walking through the rental shop. Sounds like someone has a personal vendetta on the burner. Slips and falls at home are more common than incidents on the slopes..........so, do not be surprised if some day you may be requuired to wear a helmet the next time you step into the shower or tub............
TTYL