The Lost Winter
Early Prediction...........by almost as sources..........winter to be cold and snowy!
WRONG, on all accounts.!!!!!
Is there hope...........?.............not much.
Source #1:
With regard to this particular winter - or non winter - the problems remain immense and model depictions of how the pattern is going to evolve over the next 10 days has been really bad. The various models keep forecasting a winter pattern to evolve down the road. Yet, when that time arrives and we compare the actual to the forecast we see huge discrepancies.
If you are hoping for a significant pattern change .........it is not going to happen!
There will still be some winter weather off and on. But winter as we know it is not going to happen.
Source #2:
The AO and NAO have been mostly positive all winter long. Thus, we have seen a seemingly unblocked zonal flow. When the AO and NAO go negative, surface pressures rise in the Polar regions and cold air is more likely to shift south. When they are positive, surface pressures are lower at the higher latitudes and the cold arctic air is more likely to stay put, which has been the predominant pattern this winter. The AO and NAO have ventured into the negative but indications are that this is only temporary and will drift back to neutral.
BOTTOM LINE...........We have made snow at every possible opportunity and are in great shape to provide good skiing/boarding/tubing well into early March despite Mother Nature's stubbornness.
WRONG, on all accounts.!!!!!
Is there hope...........?.............not much.
Source #1:
With regard to this particular winter - or non winter - the problems remain immense and model depictions of how the pattern is going to evolve over the next 10 days has been really bad. The various models keep forecasting a winter pattern to evolve down the road. Yet, when that time arrives and we compare the actual to the forecast we see huge discrepancies.
If you are hoping for a significant pattern change .........it is not going to happen!
There will still be some winter weather off and on. But winter as we know it is not going to happen.
Source #2:
The AO and NAO have been mostly positive all winter long. Thus, we have seen a seemingly unblocked zonal flow. When the AO and NAO go negative, surface pressures rise in the Polar regions and cold air is more likely to shift south. When they are positive, surface pressures are lower at the higher latitudes and the cold arctic air is more likely to stay put, which has been the predominant pattern this winter. The AO and NAO have ventured into the negative but indications are that this is only temporary and will drift back to neutral.
BOTTOM LINE...........We have made snow at every possible opportunity and are in great shape to provide good skiing/boarding/tubing well into early March despite Mother Nature's stubbornness.
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