LAST FORECAST SOURCE COMES FORWARD
When I last abruptly left you, I was on my way to dig up a water main that had blown out......Actually we quickly found the break, got it dug up and Josh Johnson did a great job of quickly welding on a patch and we were up and making snow by the time cold weather returned.
I have been waiting for my last forecast contact to get back to me and he has finally done so. He is not always prompt, but he has proven to be uncannily accurate in the past. He claims he is more accurate than most, due to the fact that he does not rush to get a forecast out in a hurry. He says there is always pressure to get the forecast out early. The problem of the early forecast is 2-fold. First, some variables are simply unknown until December approaches. Secondly, some known variables can change as winter approaches. For example, when making winter forecasts, it is critical to look at the developing snow cover across the northern hemisphere.
His past history of accuracy scares me, as he does not predict good things for us lovers of snow.
Here are some highlights of his comments about the winter of 2010-11.
1-La Nina.......As of now, it now appears to have peaked and declining earlier than predicted. This was the fastest transition ever from a strong event to a moderate event. Research indicates that a rapid transition and development of a ENSO event often leads to a rapid decline as well. So what???? Well, a fast break-down could lead to a fairly cold and snow February............ That IS Good!
2-PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)....considered one of the most important climate discoveries in the last 20 years. It is way too technical for me to explain, so if you are interested chack out this link.......... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
Bottom line on the PDO is that it is currently strongly negative and this means there is likely to be deep persistent troughs over much of the western 1/3 of the continental US. Not good for us as that puts us under the warm ridge.
3-Enhanced Pacific Jet.......This is a double edged sword. A Strong Pacific jet is often resistant to bending and buckling and thus would temper any huge ridges from developing over us and aid in avoiding those huge warm spells...........On the flip side, a strong jet also hinders cold spells from settling in over us and as a snowmaker, I often look forward to those cold snaps.........
4-Snowcover across Canada is critical for us to see any type of winter weather. Right now we have recently seen a rapid increase in snow cover across the northern hemisphere............ I like that.
To summarize his forecast, he predicted a cold and snowy start to winter. He nailed that. The second half of Dec and 1st half of Jan will be much more moderate. OK, but let's not get carried away here. End of Jan and early Feb expect MUCH ABOVE Normal Temps.........now that is getting carried away!!!!!!!!! Winter should close snowy and cold..............that is more like it.
I have been waiting for my last forecast contact to get back to me and he has finally done so. He is not always prompt, but he has proven to be uncannily accurate in the past. He claims he is more accurate than most, due to the fact that he does not rush to get a forecast out in a hurry. He says there is always pressure to get the forecast out early. The problem of the early forecast is 2-fold. First, some variables are simply unknown until December approaches. Secondly, some known variables can change as winter approaches. For example, when making winter forecasts, it is critical to look at the developing snow cover across the northern hemisphere.
His past history of accuracy scares me, as he does not predict good things for us lovers of snow.
Here are some highlights of his comments about the winter of 2010-11.
1-La Nina.......As of now, it now appears to have peaked and declining earlier than predicted. This was the fastest transition ever from a strong event to a moderate event. Research indicates that a rapid transition and development of a ENSO event often leads to a rapid decline as well. So what???? Well, a fast break-down could lead to a fairly cold and snow February............ That IS Good!
2-PDO(Pacific Decadal Oscillation)....considered one of the most important climate discoveries in the last 20 years. It is way too technical for me to explain, so if you are interested chack out this link.......... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation
Bottom line on the PDO is that it is currently strongly negative and this means there is likely to be deep persistent troughs over much of the western 1/3 of the continental US. Not good for us as that puts us under the warm ridge.
3-Enhanced Pacific Jet.......This is a double edged sword. A Strong Pacific jet is often resistant to bending and buckling and thus would temper any huge ridges from developing over us and aid in avoiding those huge warm spells...........On the flip side, a strong jet also hinders cold spells from settling in over us and as a snowmaker, I often look forward to those cold snaps.........
4-Snowcover across Canada is critical for us to see any type of winter weather. Right now we have recently seen a rapid increase in snow cover across the northern hemisphere............ I like that.
To summarize his forecast, he predicted a cold and snowy start to winter. He nailed that. The second half of Dec and 1st half of Jan will be much more moderate. OK, but let's not get carried away here. End of Jan and early Feb expect MUCH ABOVE Normal Temps.........now that is getting carried away!!!!!!!!! Winter should close snowy and cold..............that is more like it.
posted by Snowstar Ski Resort at
1:40 PM
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