Updated Update

Just when they ruin my Thanksgiving with a warm December forecast, they do an about face and tease me with the chance of a slightly different twist on what to expect in the next couple of weeks!

Here is the latest...........

There is still debate on whether it is going to be colder than normal or just seasonally could in December. Either scenario is completely different than the forecasts that came out just three days earlier. This is GREAT NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!
Several forecasters commented that in Oct they expected the HEART of the cold air would be centered over the Western Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Plains...........that thought has returned. Their explanation for the warm Dec forecast was the surge in intensity of El Nino leads to just that 9 out of 10 times. But, apparently this is going to be that 1 time in 10! Oh yeah!

What changed to make such a stunning turnaround? Seems that we are about to see a jet stream change. The powerful Pacific Jet is about to be replaced by a split jet which will set the stage for the Arctic Jet and the Subtropical Jet to become prominent. This being said, we have a great opportunity to see some cold air early and some snow later as the Arctic Jet provides the cold air and the SubTropic Jet provides the moisture............

LET THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT AND IT WILL BE A GREAT START TO THE SEASON!!!!

Update as Promised

Oh my how things have changed since I last blogged. Those early forecasts of a bitter cold and snowy winter seem to have been based on some faulty assumptions. The key assumption was that El Nino, showing no signs of strengthening all fall would continue in that manner. Unfortunately, in late Oct and Early Nov it literally exploded!

The impact of the rapid rise of the El Nino into the upper fringe of the Moderate Category over the past few weeks clearly affects the winter forecast. Typical of such a transition is the development of a very powerful Pacific Jet Flow. This has been evident over the last 2 weeks. This will particularly impact the 1st half of winter when we are now expected to see a warm and wet pattern well into January. Does anyone remember the winter of 06/07?????? A very similar scenario!

El Nino's huge pool of warm water does appear to be migrating eastward toward the Peru coast. As this massive bubble of warmth propagates eastward, waters should cool off significantly behind it. If this can persist, then El Nino's strength should be short lived.

That being said, the 2nd half of winter could very likely see cold and snow settling in and persisting until early March. Does anyone remember the winter of 06/07?????? A very similar scenario!

If you look at past data, you can find 4 winters where we had El Nino events which rapidly strengthened in late Oct and early Nov only to weaken during late Dec and early Jan. Those winters were 1965-66, 2002-03, 2004-05, and 2006-07. In all four of these events we saw a mild or very mild Dec followed by a significant shift in the overall pattern at some point during the 2nd half of winter. The best known and most recent case was the El Nino Event of 2006-07. This featured a very warm Dec over the entire nation east of the Rockies followed by a rapid breakdown of the El Nino during the holidays.... and then a massive pattern shift to a significant cold and snowy pattern east of the Mississippi....from Jan 15 thru Mar 15. That 60 day period was one of the coldest 60 day periods ever seen in the continental US in the last 100 years.

In the short term, we are hearing a lot of talk about a cold outbreak in the near horizon. But I really do not see it being extreme or long-lived. In order for that to happen you have to have a core of cold air on this side of the world. Right now you see the main Polar Vortex is still situated way over in China and Siberia. There is no hint in any models that the vortex is going to leave and shift over into the Western Hemisphere any time soon. Without the vortex setting up in the Western Hemisphere, there is no way to keep the cold pattern in place. Without having a Polar Vortex in place, there is no resistance when the pattern begins to weaken and the Pacific Jet will once again reassert itself.

Snowmaking capabilities will be relied upon heavily once again!!!!!!!!!