Winter Update

WELL!.............the second guessing has begun.
I am hearing numerous reports that some meteorologists(from both the private commercial sector and the energy sector) are beginning to downplay their winter forecasts. Some are even hinting at a collapse of winter as predicted just a couple weeks ago!
Perhaps part of the problem is that we have just come off 2 significant winters in a row and the anticipation, excitement, and build up for a 3rd such winter has led to over-zealous expectations.
It now looks like the best we may see is seasonal conditions and that may not happen until mid December. Nothing like the winter forecasters being wrong before Winter officially begins.

Accuweather just issued a statement that they need to revise their winter forecast!
Let the back-pedaling begin. They originally predicted the Midwest to see lots of cold and lots of snow. La Nina has proven to be weaker than expected. A strong La Nina often overrides other patterns and will provide more definitive results. A weaker La Nina is more likely to be influenced by other factors, yielding a wide variety of potential outcomes.
One of the key players recently has been the lack of a Greenland Block. Without this block, the dip in the storm track is in the Western U.S. Bingo, that is what November has seen. So, will the NAO go negative sometime soon and create a block???? If you visited my previous posting you may recall my comment about Accuweather's initial forecast............."Sounds too good to be true!!!!!!!!!"..........
I am still holding out for a good winter even if it may be a little late in arriving. The last 2 winters really got cranking as soon as Dec hit. There still have been a lot of winters that got off to a slow start but provided lots of winter in late December into January and February.

Upcoming Winter 11/12

Has anyone missed me.....?.......I know, I need to step up and show some diligence and post once in a while..........
So what is coming our way this winter? Always an exciting time of year as we anticipate the first hint of winter weather.
I can never wait to see the various forecasts, but experience has shown me that the early forecasts simply have little substance. But it is still fun to take a look at them, compare them and ultimately grade them out to see how accurate they really were.
Last year's results???????? Somewhat shaky to say the least. Consensus was that February was going to be cold and snowy............not so much in reality! We got that wonderful dump of powder on Feb 1st and 2nd. Little did we know that end of winter was upon us. Guess that groundhog was smarter than we thought.
Here ya go............forecasts as of today November 17th, 2011.
#1-AccuWeather
Says the Midwest will be dealt the worst of winter this year.
In terms both snow and cold.
Bitterly cold blasts of arctic air are expected to invade the Midwest through January, with above normal snowfall. This buildup of snow cover across the Midwest could act as a catalyst to extend winter beyond February.
why?..La Nina
La Nina's often produce a volatile weather pattern for the Midwest due to the influence they have on the jet stream. The way the Jet Stream is expected to be positioned during this Winter's event will tend to drive storms though the Midwest.
Sounds too good to be true!!!!!!!!!

#2 Old Farmer's Almanac
Winter Temps will be above normal with below normal precip. Coldest in Mid-Late Dec, Mid Jan, Mid Feb..........Snowiest periods Mid Dec, Late Feb
Certainly not an acceptable forecast!!!

#3. Farmers' Almanac
Average Temps with above normal Precip.......this is the odd one(could work if that precip is snow and not rain or ice).

#4. NOAA
Near Normal Precip and slightly below normal temps (boring but acceptable)

#5. WXRISK
Dec - Colder than normal temps with above normal precip
Jan….Below normal temps with normal precip
Feb….Colder than normal temps with above normal precip
Outstanding Forecast ....and by the way, he is often right!!!!

#6. Snowday
Winter Temps
I am expecting the northern tier of the United States to experience the harshest cold this winter compared to average. Below average temperatures will exist over a portion of the western United States moving southeast through the eastern U.S.
However, if the AO is not as negative as expected this winter, and I am getting a bit worried about the AO not becoming as negative,temperatures would be overall warmer over the southeastern United States as well as a chunk of the eastern United States.
Winter Snowfall....Average to slightly above average.
Ice Storm Risk...Due to the expected track of the storm systems this year, and the NAO for not being as negative as we head into the winter time as well as the AO being more neutral these storms will have a harder time to go as far south as last winter did, thus warm air will mix with the cold air creating the potential for significant ice storms across much of central and eastern Kansas through all of Missouri, northern Arkansas as well as all of Illinois This winter will be the winter of the Ice Storm over a good deal of the eastern/central United States.
QC Summary....much like last winter, will see lots of variability this winter. I am expecting some harsh winter weather conditions with brutal cold air.Clipper like systems will be most prevalent and will even be more south then last winter landing with some quick hitting snow cold and wind from Nebraska and Iowa on north.
Every so often there will be the potential for some panhandle low pressure systems, these will be the power house storm systems that will deliver with it high impact winter conditions. I am expecting a heightened risk for high ice storms much of Kansas, Missouri and southeastern Nebraska through eastern Iowa, much more
of a ice risk this winter then last winter as the NAO/AO wont be quite as negative this winter allowing these storms to go further north, but only enough to clash the warm air with the cold air to create ice storm conditions. Overall temperatures will seesaw through the winter with extreme bouts of arctic air and warmer air, the entire winter will not be bone chilling nor will the entire winter be warm weather.
Lots of potential, but he throws in a few zingers that mak me uneasy!!!

LRC
Winter Temperature Forecast
A cold winter is most likely from the Mississippi River Valley northeast
Winter Precipitation Forecast. We are forecasting an active weather pattern across North America this winter with strong and wet storm systems, most frequently over the Great Lakes states. Very strong Pacific storm systems will blast into the western states at times deepening into the long-term long wave troughs. We will learn a lot more about how storm systems will track, intensify, weaken, and strengthen in the next few weeks. We are expecting more rain than in recent winters. The past two winters have had mostly dry and fluffy snowstorms with very little of the precipitation coming in other forms.  This year we expect rain, freezing rain, and sleet to cut into what could be higher totals.
Gary throws in some big red flags on all of the winter bliss!!!!!!!! and he has a strong track record!

Stay Tuned For Updates...........
and Happy Thanksgiving